It feels as if every year starts with the identical phrase. I am “cautiously optimistic” about the success of my company and the economy. I am not sure if that is my natural attitude about business or if it is because year after year really does have the same feel to it. It appears 2019 is, as Yogi Berra said, “deja vu all over again.”
My corrugated box business, Volk Packaging in Biddeford, Maine, is entering our 52nd year. We just completed our 10th consecutive year of growth. That successful run began during the Great Recession when I was more cautious than optimistic. In 2018, we enjoyed the fruits of an extremely strong economy. Some would say it is a cycle, because they would never give the current President any credit, but I think it is hard to deny that our booming economy starts with someone in the White House who is creating a business-friendly environment. Yes, we all wish he would stop Tweeting, but I’ll take the Tweets as long as they keep coming with tax cuts.
I cannot recall a time in my career when every single customer I visit or talk to by phone tells me how busy they are. Business is good across all sectors of the economy, even in often lagging New England. However, the chaos in the West Wing, the trade war, the recent drops in the Dow are all concerns. A more frightening situation is the newly elected Maine Legislature and Governor. I’m very worried they’ll take all the successes of the past 8 years and bring us back to a time when it was clear the lawmakers in Augusta did not like businesses. I remember a legislator telling me in 2003, “You know what your problem is? You don’t realize that 75% of the people in this building hate your guts just because you are a successful business owner.” I would be disappointed to sense those feelings from the State House have returned.
Workforce issues continue to be a challenge. A major issue that every company is facing, and will not get better soon, is the gray tsunami. At Volk Packaging, 44% of our employees are over 50. When all of those great people with so much institutional knowledge retire, we will need to find good and dependable workers to replace them. That will not be easy. It is very difficult to find good employees, so we continue to try hard to be one of the best places to work in Maine. We all need to start looking to the future and begin succession planning throughout our organizations.
The box business is changing at a pace like never before. Digital printing will continue to make advancements faster than most of us can keep up with. Those who bought a digital printer two years ago are seeing their technology has been surpassed and if you buy one today it will be outdated equipment in 2021. The thriving economy is giving more and more companies the courage to spend money on bigger (or smaller) machines that run faster and faster. That is an intimidating environment for small companies like mine who are trying to remain competitive. So, every day my entire team wakes up in the morning determined to provide the best quality possible as well as out service and out hustle our competition.
There are many threats that could cause this economic bubble to burst. A trade war, tax increases, the Texas overturning of the ACA, which could significantly impact the healthcare industry in the states with Medicaid expansion, a housing market crash, or the circus of a presidential impeachment could all be the pin in that bubble. Despite all that doom and gloom, I have no doubt my great team, strong vendors and loyal customers will help us make it another record setting year. So, when people ask me how business is looking for 2019, I think I’ll just smile and say that I am cautiously optimistic.
Derek Volk is the President and owner of Volk Packaging Corporation, a 3rd generation corrugated box manufacturer in Biddeford, Maine. He is the author of the Amazon Best Seller, Chasing the Rabbit: A Dad’s Life Raising a Son on the Spectrum.
